Berlusconi: is it really addio?

Two analyses on Berlusconi’s resignation.

NOT YET, HE COULD FIGHT

If Berlusconi survives the psychological blow of his loyalists’ betrayal and the celebrations for his resignation, he will have a political campaign in front of him. It is the one in 2013. Actually, the prime minister has left the scene as a noble statesman.

Of course, the weight of the collapse of Mediaset stocks has been a decisive variable at the time of decision making, but Berlusconi has saved his face institutional. The technical government, which he will (at least unofficially) strongly support, could ensure some re-branding, or at least the freezing of his personal approval. According to current surveys, his support is still between 22% and 27%: a figure that could be crucial with this election la , but that even with the return to Mattarellum gives some ease to him.

The campaign is too easy not to be considered by Berlusconi:

- I have resigned without being discouraged by the Parliament (unlike Prodi);

- I resigned voluntarily, for the sake of the country;

- I was elected democratically and yet I have supported another majority nevertheless, for the national interest;

- Monti was not chosen by the people, but ‘placed’ by external powers, technocracy and European investment funds which have started the global crisis;

- Ten years ago, families could go shopping with 50 thousand liras, now with 50 € you cannot buy anything. The euro (Prodi’s euro and the Left’s euro) is a disaster for our country, for Europe and the world;

- I never put my hands in the pockets of Italians;

Berlusconi may of course add to these keywords all the hard choices approved by Monti, which seem necessary for Italy even if the outgoing government has never wanted to take them into account: a property and liquid assets tax, pension reform, the return of ICI (first house) tax, strong taxation on capital abroad, liberalization of certain professions.

Berlusconi also preserves its key advantages in media: these slogans may in fact be at the center of the debate on its newspapers and its TV channels in the next months, even if he doesn’t appear at all. The prime minister may, in theory, disappear completely from the media scene for six months, let the Italians breathe, let the other politicians fight, not vote in Parliament (he is an MP yet, with a lot of immunities and privileges, and in all likelihood in the majority), not contribute at all to the joys and sorrows of the next government. At the end, with elections approaching, he could decide to apply (not necessarily with the PDL, People of Freedom) for the final round. He would be defeated almost certainly, but he is surely a fighter.

(Dino Amenduni)

YES, NOW HE’S GONE

Raffaele Mauro once said that Berlusconi is the ultimate political survivor. But know it’s over. Let’s see why.

Giorgio Napolitano made Mario Monti a life senator on Wednesday. This move has wrecked Berlusconi’s party, the PDL, in a few hours: it has become more divided than the worst Democratic Party. In fact, the late Christian Democracy (DC, Italy’s ruling party in the Prima Repubblica) ultimately won over the amateur Berlusconi. Concretely, the DC appeal has attracted not only people like Pisanu or Scajola, but the powerful movement “Communion and Liberation”, which I’ve always considered relevant in the balance of Italian politics and society.

To celebrate the 150 years of our republic, we’ve recently held two exhibitions to remember the two great parties of the Prima Repubblica, DC and PCI (the Communist party). The organizers of the DC exhibition argue that the party once gave “people, ideas and government that made Italy” a modern nation. Nowadays, Italy is humiliated and impoverished. It is time for nostalgia. Berlusconi will never be at the center of an electoral majority anymore. Communion and Liberation has twenty years of experience in the government of Lombardy. They surely can be criticized but, unlike Berlusconi, they have governed. Without the Catholic church, it’s over for him, in any party. The Church at all levels would be against him: the Cardinals Bagnasco and Bertone have had their differences, but they now agree on Berlusconi’s demise.

How did Berlusconi end, symbolically? Not for the courts. Not for the girls. It has not been a violent show, with retaliations and some kind of coup d’etat. The state bodies do not back him: executives, secret services, employees. Berlusconi’s grasp on the Italian state was embodied (in a technical way, I am not making judgments) by the long-serving undersecretary of state, Gianni Letta. He has waved goodbye to the public employees.

Actually, Berlusconi did “put his hands in the pockets of Italians”, and the Italians know it. They will not forget. Berlusconi’s economic constituency no longer exists. They will bandwagon elsewhere. A reserved and powerful man, Giuseppe Guzzetti (head of Italy’s banking foundations), a few weeks ago said “They say the spread could go 100 points below for Berlusconi? That would be great”. Companies, real estate, young professionals: nobody wants Berlusconi anymore.

The media. Berlusconi will denounce the plot of supranational elites against Italian democracy? Oh, sure, I have already heard the “gnomes of Zurich” on national television. But he cannot get many votes this way. Frankly I do not believe in an alliance of Berlusconi and the left of the Democratic Party against evil technocrats. I do not imagine Berlusconi saying to the red crowds “Long live the workers, long live the workers’ rights!” He is not accountable. It is more likely to imagine Glenn Beck embracing and kissing one by one all the people at Occupy Wall Street.

Imagine an apocalyptic scenario: dull austerity without growth, the ECB does not act as a lender of last resort, un-managed default, mass hysteria. In extreme scenarios, unfortunately, the mafia’s liquidity can rule over credit crunch and some tensions could rise at the union level. But the votes could not go back to Berlusconi, they would eventually go to Beppe Grillo, SEL (Left Ecology Freedom, Vendola’s party), or people backed by the influential newspaper “Il Fatto Quotidiano” (however, their leader does not like Vendola). Yes, Italians will spend a lot of time debating “how we got into this mess” or “the Democratic Party is to blame” or “everybody should be blamed”: these things can add confusion, but they are not getting Berlusconi back. The government will be assessed based on the performance of the economy, as it happens when the economy is by far a top priority for the average voter.

Finally, I obviously know that TV is influential in Italy, but I believe its influence is now overrated. If you believe that the TV tycoon takes it all, you should consider the poor ratings of reality show and other programs, the growth of La7 (a TV that became a safe haven for a number of journalists forced to leave by Berlusconi’s loyalists). And do not forget that Berlusconi never became friend with the Internet: his pupil’s Alfano use of Twitter is not going to change this.

In our researches at Lo Spazio della Politica, we have written hundreds of times that there are still problems in Italy after Berlusconi. This is why we need to live in Italy after Berlusconi. Some issues are not about Berlusconi. I do not deny the problem of the dignity of women in these years, but it is not just because of this that in the lists of likely ministers we have seen there are very few women and very few people below 60 (or probably 65). The lack of recognition of women’s role in society may turn out to influence cultures that have nothing to do with Berlusconi, like PCI or Bocconi. And this is surely an issue: a new generation has the responsibility to turn the page, on this and much more.

Yesterday I mentioned on my Facebook profile Ezio Vanoni, a great servant of the Republic, who died abruptly during his ministerial tenure in the 1950s. He is an Italian I admire. I can predict a widespread nostalgia for the key frame of Italian politics (the “Italian miracle” after the Second War War), and for the outstanding quality of the political classes of that age of reconstruction. This is true, but this is not enough. Those “Founding Fathers” are all dead, or are about to die. Now it’s up to us, we are alive. Good luck to everybody.

(Alessandro Aresu)